Is Overexpression of Ki-67 a Prognostic Biomarker of Upper Tract Urinary Carcinoma? A Retrospective Cohort Study and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND Upper tract urinary carcinoma (UTUC) is a relatively uncommon but aggressive disease. The Ki-67 antigen is a classic marker of cellular proliferation, but there is still controversy regarding the significance and importance of Ki-67 in tumor progression. METHODS In this study, we first detected Ki-67 expression in UTUC patients by immunohistochemistry (IHC). Subsequently, we quantitatively combined the results with those from the published literature in a meta-analysis after searching several databases. RESULTS IHC results demonstrated that patients with muscle-invasive tumors (T2-T4) had higher Ki-67 expression than those with non-muscle-invasive tumors (Tis-T1), suggesting that high Ki-67 expression may be associated with the aggressive form of UTUC. Kaplan-Meier curves showed that patients with high Ki-67 expression had significantly poorer cancer-specific survival (CSS) and disease-free survival (DFS). Furthermore, multivariate analysis suggested that Ki-67 expression was an independent prognostic factor for CSS (hazard ratio, HR=3.196) and DFS (HR=3.517) in UTUC patients. Then, a meta-analysis of the published literature investigating Ki-67 expression and its effects on UTUC prognosis was conducted. After searching the PubMed, Medline, Embase, Cochrane Library and Scopus databases, 12 articles met the eligibility criteria for this analysis. The eligible studies included a total of 1740 patients with a mean number of 82 patients per study (range, 38-475). The combined results showed that increased Ki-67 levels were associated with poor survival and disease progression, with a pooled HR estimate of 2.081 and 2.791, respectively. In subgroup analysis, the pooled HR was statistically significant for cancer-specific survival (HR=2.276), metastasis-free survival (HR=3.008) and disease-free survival (HR=6.336). CONCLUSIONS In conclusion, high Ki-67 expression was associated with poor survival in patients with UTUC, as well as a high risk of disease progression, although these findings need to be interpreted with caution. Large-scale, adequately designed, prospective trials are needed to further confirm the value of Ki-67 in prognosis of UTUC patients.